1. there are stocks that get beaten up, give a pause at or near the bottom and then begin to head back higher. These stocks generally have something in common; it's a combination of upgrades and higher earnings estimate revisions.
2. the stock market is somewhat like a helium balloon. Its natural tendency is to go up as long as something isn't pushing it down
3.在20世纪80年代股市上涨的5年中，股价每年的涨幅大约为26.3%，坚持长期持有的投资者资产会翻番，但其实这5年的大部分利润是在1276个交易日中的40个交易日中赚取的，如果在那40个交易日中你选择空仓的话，你的年均收益可能就会从26.3%降到4.3%
4.Let's be clear, nobody knows which way the market will move over the next 1-3 months. Anybody who insists they do is just guessing.
5.• Since 1929, in the 12 months following the end of a bear market, a fully invested stock portfolio had an average total return of +37.4%. But, if you missed the first six months from the bottom of a bear by being in cash, your return would have only been 7.5%.
• Between 1995 and 2014, a fully invested $10,000 portfolio (in
the S&P 500) would have grown to $65,453, for an annualized return
of 9.85%. However:
•
However
, If you missed the 10 best days in that time span, your investment
would have only grown to $32,665, or an annualized return of 6.10%.
Miss the best 30 days, and you barely annualize 1%.
Remember that volatility works both ways, and a market recovery following a correction is often just as steep as the preceding decline
6. Gladly, there are special stocks that tend to rise no matter what the overall market is doing. Those are the ones that are blowing away earnings expectations. They are quite often innovators that are inventing whole new industries or disrupting old ones with a breakthrough approach. We call these stocks "Game Changers" and they are the ones you want in your portfolio as they can provide phenomenal rates of return for those who get in early enough.
7. There is no stock that has just moved higher after coming public. It is only a matter of common sense to know that stocks move up and down. Armed with this knowledge, one should not chase the latest and greatest stock the first day it opens unless you are gunning for a short term trade.
Inevitably, the stocks that start off too hot are the ones that will
languish for 6-12 months in a stand still position. This is clearly not
what investors want to see.
8. Few game changers can continuously disrupt industries. When they do, you have to hold that stock for a very long period of time. Most game changers see a swift ride to prominence and fame...but eventually, the shine loses its luster. The key idea here is not to be married to these ideas and be willing to take down gains as the stock moves higher.
9. It's much better to buy quality names that Wall Street is already comfortable with. By quality I mean industry leaders who have shown consistent earnings growth over the years. Yes, many will be large caps...but I prefer to scoop up more of the mid caps as they typically provide greater upside potential.
The key to success with these quality names is to wait for them to
endure a round of profit taking and then you buy on the dip. It's kind
of like going to TJ Maxx...buying name brands at discount prices.