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  • [Machine Learning for Trading] {ud501} Lesson 13: 02-03 What is a company worth? | Lesson 14: 02-04 The Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM)

    What is a company worth?

    Yes, the value of $1 would typically reduce over time, and the sum of the individual $1's generated every year would converge to a finite value.

    but other three answers can be correct in different point of view

     Why company value matters

     

    intrinsic value => dividend accumulated in the future

    book value => assets the company owns

     market cap =>  the value of the stock on the market

     The Balch Bond

     

    When comparing these different options, assume that they cost you the same today. Say, you have 80 cents to invest, and these are the 3 options you can get for that money.

    Note: Rank 1 = most preferred option, 3 = least preferred.

    Bond: 债券

     The value of a future dollar

     

    US government promises 1% interest rate => today it's worthwhile to pay 0.99$ to US government for the promise that they'll return 1$ in a year

    Balch Bond attracts buyers by a higher interest rate 5% <= the same as => charges less

    Intrinsic value 

    interest rate => how risky the company is

    Interest Rate and Discount Rate are terms that refer to essentially the same quantity, but are used to distinguish two slightly different use cases:

    • Interest Rate is used with a given Present Value, to figure out what the Future Value would be.
    • Discount Rate is used when we have a known or desired Future Value, and want to compute the corresponding Present Value.

    For instance, in this case we want to sum up all future dividends - equal to a constant ($1 or FV) every year.

     n = 1+IR

    DR => the same concept in reinforcement learning???

     

    Book value 

     

    ignore patents' value

     Market capitalization

     

     Why information affects stock price

     

    future dividend decreases or increases

    Compute company value 

     

    Yes, you should buy it right away!

    Ignoring the intrinsic value, if you buy the entire company off the market (for $75M) and immediately sell it for its book value ($80M), you have a $5M profit right there!

    Even if you are buying some stocks (instead of the whole company), the stock price is expected to increase (as it is currently undervalued).

     

    IV >> Market cap => buy stock

    IV << Market cap => short the stock

    BV => lowest price => stock value should not be lower than the book value, otherwise, why not buy the company and sell every facilities?





    Two questions:

    How a company determines its Interest Rate?

    Why intrinsic value doesnt count the patent value?






    The Capital Asset Pricing Model 

     1960s developed => 1990s nobel prize

    CAPM => led to the development of index funds and the belief that you can't beat the market 

     Definition of a portfolio

     

     Portfolio return

    0.75 1% + (-0.25) (-2%)
    0.75% + 0.5%
    = 1.25%

     The market portfolio

    The CAPM equation 

     

     Compare alpha and beta

     

     CAPM vs active management

     

     CAPM for portfolios

     

    That's right - you want a higher β in upward markets so that you can ride the surge, but a lower β in downward markets so you don't crash as much.

     Implications of CAPM

     

     Arbitrage Pricing Theory

     

     

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  • 原文地址:https://www.cnblogs.com/ecoflex/p/10977380.html
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