美国对华贸易逆差创新高， 或采取更激进立场
U.S.-China Trade Deficit Hits Record, Fueling Trade Fight
WASHINGTON — The United States trade deficit with China climbed to its highest level on record
in 2017, a trend that could prompt the Trump administration toward tougher trade actions in the
coming months.
华盛顿——美国与中国的贸易逆差在 2017 年攀至历史最高水平， 这一趋势可能促使特朗普政
府在未来几个月采取更严厉的贸易行动。
The gap between Chinese goods imported to the United States and American goods exported to
China rose to $375.2 billion last year, up from $347 billion the prior year, data released Tuesday
morning by the Commerce Department showed.
美国商务部周二上午公布的数据显示， 去年进口到美国的中国产品和出口到中国的美国产品之
间的金额差距从前年的 3470 亿美元上升到去年的 3752 亿美元。
The overall United States trade deficit in goods and services with the world widened 12.1 percent to
$566 billion last year, the largest gap since 2008.
美国去年的全球商品和服务贸易逆差总额扩大了 12.1%， 达到 5660 亿美元， 这是 2008 年以来
的最大差距。
Economists said the growing trade deficit stemmed largely from the strength of the United States
economy, which helped American consumers afford more imported electronics, clothes and
appliances. The declining value of the dollar last year, which makes American products cheaper to
buy overseas, also helped to lift exports, but not enough to prevent the gap from widening.
经济学家表示， 贸易赤字的增长主要来自美国经济的强劲表现， 它令美国消费者有能力购买更
多的进口电子产品、 服装和家电。 美元去年的贬值使得在海外购买美国产品更便宜， 这有助于
提振出口， 但还不足以防止逆差扩大。
The Trump administration has long promised to eliminate the trade gap, citing it as evidence of the
decline of American manufacturing and a troubling reliance on foreign goods.
特朗普政府长期以来一直承诺消除贸易差距， 并称其证明了美国制造业的衰落， 乃至美国对外
国商品令人不安的依赖。
In a statement Tuesday, Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, said the administration would
ultimately reduce the trade deficit by enforcing trade rules, renegotiating existing trade pacts and
forming new ones. He pointed to the president’s recent decision to impose tariffs on imports of solar
panels and washing machines, as well as ongoing renegotiations of trade deals with Canada,
Mexico and South Korea, as ways in which the United States would narrow the trade gap.
商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross)于周二发表声明说， 政府将通过执行贸易规则、 重新谈判现
有贸易协定并制定新的贸易协定等措施， 来减少逆差。 他指出， 总统最近决定对进口太阳能电
池板和洗衣机征收关税， 并且正在与加拿大、 墨西哥和韩国就贸易协议进行重新谈判， 作为美
国缩小贸易差距的途径。
The trade deficit figures could strengthen the resolve of Mr. Trump’s trade advisers, who want the
United States to take a more aggressive stance on trade and are urging tougher action on trading
partners that export more to the United States than they import, like China, Mexico and South Korea.
贸易赤字数字可能会增强特朗普贸易顾问的决心， 他们希望美国采取更激进的贸易立场， 并敦
促对向美国出口比从美国进口多的贸易伙伴采取更严厉的行动， 如中国、 墨西哥和韩国。
After rolling out trade actions on washing machines and solar panels that were nominally aimed at
China, the administration is considering sweeping action to protect American intellectual property
from Chinese incursions. American negotiators are working to rewrite trade pacts with Mexico and
South Korea, in large part because these countries run large bilateral trade surpluses with the United
States.
在推出名义上针对中国的洗衣机和太阳能电池板的贸易行动后， 政府正在考虑采取全面行动，
保护美国知识产权免遭中国侵犯。 美国谈判代表正在努力修改同墨西哥和韩国的贸易协定， 很
大程度上是因为这些国家与美国的双边贸易顺差较大。
Some left-leaning groups that support the president’s promises to end offshoring embraced the view
that the administration’s trade policies simply haven’t gone far enough.
一些支持总统结束离岸外包承诺的左倾集团认为， 政府的贸易政策还做得远远不够。
“The same trade policy that Trump attacks ferociously and promised to speedily replace is still in
place,” said Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch. “It’s not surprising that
the deficit is up because in year one there has been a wide gulf between Trump’s fiery trade rhetoric
and action.”
“特朗普猛烈抨击并承诺要迅速替换掉的贸易政策仍然存在， ”民众全球贸易观察(Global
Citizen's Global Trade Watch)负责人洛丽·瓦拉赫(Lori Wallach)表示。 “赤字出现上涨并不奇怪，
因为在特朗普执政第一年， 他的行动和他那些激烈的贸易言论之间还存在很大差距。 ”
Despite Mr. Trump’s frequent promises to reduce the trade deficit, many economists believe that his
trade policies will be largely powerless to reverse the trend. That’s because the overall trade deficit is
governed by macroeconomic factors, including the relative growth rates of countries, the value of
their currencies, and their saving and investment rates. So while changes in trade policy can shift
imports and exports from one country to another, for example, reducing the American trade deficit
with China while increasing its trade deficit with Thailand, they are unlikely to reduce the American
trade deficit overall.
尽管特朗普经常承诺减少贸易逆差， 但许多经济学家认为， 他的贸易政策在很大程度上无力扭
转这种趋势。 这是因为总体贸易逆差受宏观经济因素的影响， 包括各国的相对增长率、 货币的
价值、 储蓄和投资率。 因此， 虽然贸易政策的变化可以将进出口从一个国家转移到另一个国家，
比如说， 一方面减少美国与中国的贸易逆差， 一方面增加美国与泰国的贸易逆差， 但这样不太
可能从整体上减少美国的贸易逆差。
And Mr. Trump’s signature economic policy so far — the $1.5 trillion tax cut — is likely to widen
the trade deficit in coming years by encouraging more investment in the United States, many
economists say.
很多经济学家认为， 特朗普目前的代表性经济政策——1.5 万亿美元的减税措施——很可能会
在未来几年内鼓励更多人在美国投资， 从而扩大贸易赤字。
Bryan Riley, director of the Free Trade Initiative at the National Taxpayers Union, said that an
increase in the trade deficit from the prior year “should not be viewed as a problem to be fixed, but
as a predictable result of a growing economy that enables people to afford more imports.”
国家纳税人联盟自由贸易倡议组织(Free Trade Initiative at the National Taxpayers Union)主管布
莱恩·赖利(Bryan Riley)表示， 贸易逆差比上年增加“不应该被视为一个需要解决的问题， 它是
经济增长可预测的结果， 人们买得起更多进口产品了。 ”
Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, cautioned against Mr. Trump’s
interpretation of the bilateral trade deficit as a scorecard for an economic relationship.
康奈尔大学(Cornell University)贸易政策教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)认为， 应当警惕
特朗普把双边贸易赤字视为经济关系衡量标准的做法。
Mr. Prasad said that some persistent deficits, like the one that the United States runs with many
countries including China, could be a sign of structural imbalances, like China’s historic tendency to
undervalue its currency. But bilateral trade balances can increase for many reasons, both bad and
good — for example, if wealthier American consumers want to buy more stuff — making it a
problematic metric for measuring fair trade.
普拉萨德说， 美国对包括中国在内的许多国家的持续逆差可能是结构性失衡的象征， 例如中国
一直以来压低人民币价值的倾向。 但是， 双边贸易平衡可能会因为许多原因而变化， 这些原因
有好也有坏——例如， 富裕的美国消费者想购买更多的东西——因此， 在衡量公平贸易时， 双
边贸易平衡是一个不确定的指标。
“The problem is that even if China were to provide greater access to its markets today, if the U.S.
economy were to do well, and China were to slow down, the deficit might actually increase,” Mr.
Prasad said. “It would certainly be problematic to view the size of that deficit as an indicator of
whether trade is fair.”
“问题是， 即使中国现在提供了更多的市场准入机会， 如果美国经济状况良好， 而中国的经济
放缓， 逆差实际上可能会增加， ”普拉萨德说。 “把这个逆差的规模看作贸易是否公平的指标，
肯定会有问题。 ”
文章来源： https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20180207/us-china-trade-deficit/dual/